Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Economic Theories: Keynes vs. Hayek

A student recently pointed out these videos to me and I thought some folks might get a kick out it. It is a musical debate over the two main theories that economists use to manage our modern economy. John Maynard Keynes taught that economic crisis could be managed by government infusions of funding that could revitalize a stagnant economy. The lesser known theorist, Friedrich Hayek, argued a more classical liberalism approach. He believed if we left the economy alone it would balance and solve itself (essentially Adam Smith's "invisible hand" theory from centuries earlier). The two theorists face off in these two videos.

The original video:


And Round Two:

Monday, October 17, 2011

Reagan: Man vs. Myth

As the GOP moves closer to the primary election we continue to hear praises of Ronald Reagan--the ultimate standard of a good Republican. He is credited with collapsing the the Evil Empire (Communist Soviet Union), with the economic boom of the 1980s (following an economic crisis under Carter), and all around hero of the party. He is a symbol against which all candidates are judged. But what did he actually do? I found myself unable to answer that question, so I did a little reading and thought I'd share it.

I found that Reagan was indeed a fabulous spokesman and the type of man that people want to believe in and definitely follow. A closer look at his presidency reveals that he did not do most of what he is credited with, and that his general lack of involvement permitted his cabinet and administrators to run wild and disturbing scandals followed. Lets look at each of these element of his presidency:

(1) Strong foreign policy, most commonly demonstrated by (a) Iran's release of hostages 20 minutes after Reagan was sworn in, and (b) the collapse of Soviet Russia.

Yes, Iran released hostages just as Reagan was sworn in, and Republicans credit him with scaring the Iranians with threatening language and a bold claim that he would not negotiate. The truth is that Carter is the only one who feared Reagan. He feared Reagan would irresponsibly thrust the US into war, and so one day before Reagan was sworn into office (Jan.19, 1981) Carter caved to the Iranian demands. In this meeting the U.S. agreed to release $7.9 billion in frozen Iranian assets, guaranteed immunity to the terrorists holding our citizens, and promised to stay out of Iranian affairs (just google Algiers Accords for the full text of the agreement). Twenty-four hours later the hostages were released. Reagan had nothing to do with their release.

As for defeating the communists, well, it is a similar situation. Reagan talked big, and he did spend tons of cash on growing the military and new tech, but that is not exactly what collapsed the USSR. At the same time Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbechev was lobbying for liberalization. He used Reagan's militant rhetoric (and unmatch-able military spending) as leverage to help liberalize the country. Reagan's bold statements like "Bring down that wall" helped Gorby to paint the US as an aggressive state and pressure his own party to change. Reagan absolutely helped--he provided Gorbechev the "bad cop" image so that Gorby could be the "good cop" when trying to reform his country. Reagan did help Gorbechev to liberalize the USSR. However, he did not unilaterally defeat the Russians; instead, he provided Gorbechev the insane threat of war that no previous American president was bold enough to threaten. The two men met frequently, as friends, and worked to cut back nuclear weapons while publicly posturing themselves as rivals.

(2) Saved the economy.

After the Johnson's domestic programs and Vietnam bankrupted the country, neither Nixon nor Ford nor Carter could get it back on track. A small but constant recession continued from the late 1960s through the early 1980s, and inflation grew out of control. When Reagan came into office he used his popular support to push through congress a republican sponsored bill that embodied "Reaganomics" or "Trickle-down economics." This idea states that if you cut taxes more people will spend, the economy will grow, and everybody will benefit.

This Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 (authored by Jack Kemp of NY and William Roth of DE) was a MAJOR tax cut, and promised to cut taxes by 23% over 3 years. However, the bill did not provide the magic bullet solution that Reagan and Republicans promised; in fact, the economy got worse. Our Gross National Product dropped by 2.5%, unemployment rose above 10%, and the Congressional Budget office anticipated widespread budgetary shortfalls. The only good news was that the heightened economic crisis deflated the inflation that Carter never could control. Americans grew tired of the failed experiment in Reaganomics, and demanded a new approach.

In 1982, CA Democrat Steve Stark authored the Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act (TEFRA). It hiked taxes back up and after the bill passed in the democrat controlled house the republican controlled senate added a few more tax increases into the language of the bill. Reagan reluctantly agreed to the tax hikes in exchange for promise from Congress to cut back on future spending. Congress did not cut back, later Democrats and Republicans blamed each other for it (dems said Reagan spent too much on military; Republicans said they spent to much on entitlement programs). In the end, TEFRA constituted one of the largest tax increases in the history of the nation. Also in that year Reagan encouraged the Garn-St. Germain Depository Institutions Act, which deregulated Savings & Loans institutions. It shrunk government and cut bureaucratic oversight, which had a short term benefit of economic growth but ultimately led to financial collapse and a government stimulus of just under $100 billion.

In this environment--government deregulation, stimulus money, expanded military expenditures, and an out of control spending funded by unprecedented taxes--the economy bounced back and expanded. Yes, the economy grew immensely under Reagan, but we need to point out two importance qualifiers. First, while the GNP rose the percent of Americans living below the poverty level (12.75) remained constant from 1980 through the close of Reagan's administration in 1988. Everyday people did not see a significant change in economy, but those who had money did secure even more. Second, the recovery was not an example of Reaganomics/trickle down economics. That little experiential failed and was replaced by modern democrat fiscal policy, and that dominated Reagan's administration. That was the economic climate during which the economy grew--not Reaganomics. In fact, in 1996 a Congressional report found that from 1981-1993 (under the administrations of Reagan and Bush Sr.), the wealthiest 10% of Americans paid a growing percent of the taxes while the poorest 50% paid a shrinking segment.

(3) Poster boy who motivated people but didn't actually do anything, which allowed for utter mismanagement and scandals within his administration.

Reagan was a great speaker, motivator, and rally point. His confidence and absolute surety drew flocks of followers. But when it came to actually doing anything, he tended to just let his cabinet and other administrators do whatever they wanted. He made the big decisions on policy, and then let them carry it out however they wanted. As a result, he could honestly plea ignorant when scandal after scandal occurred during his presidency.

Scandals? Yes, Reagan's administration had more scandals than just about anybody. I don't think Reagan was rotten, just clueless. What do you expect when you hire an actor to be president? He knew he wasn't the smartest man in the room, and simply trusted advisers to run the show. Some made serious mistakes. Here are some of the scandals that occurred during his administration:
  • Iran-Contra - illegal sale of weapons by CIA to Iran; funded by CIA dealing with Contras in Nicaragua
  • Lobbying scandals - Reagan's chief of staff and press secretary convicted of lying to congress and courts about their illegal lobbying efforts
  • EPA Scandal - EPA director and one other administrator convicted of perjury & contempt for misuse of monies
  • HUD grant rigging - a half dozen assistant directors in dept. of Interior, as well as the Sec of Interior, convicted of graft & taking bribes
  • Inslaw Affair - Dept. of Justice accused of stealing people tracking software developed by Inslaw; Reagan's attorney general refused to prosecute; congress found several in contempt for refusing to testify
  • Savings & Loan - Reagan eliminated "passive loss" in tax code, which also undercut subsidies for rental housing & thus bankrupted real estate developments & thus bankrupted Savings and Loans institutions; charges of corruption as banking industry was bailed out by taxpayers
  • Debatgate - Reagan somehow acquired Carter's prep notes for the Oct 28, 1980 debate; not divulged until 1983 when expose book was printed; one member of Reagan's administration publicly testified that Reagan's campaign manager debriefed him on Carter's debate notes but campaign manager denied it
So with that my synopsis of Reagan's presidency is complete. Was Reagan a good president? Sure, he did a fine job. But his only real accomplishment was to project a confidence that won American support. In fact, in his re-election he won the presidency with the greatest landslide victory in US electoral history. People loved the guy. But popular support does not necessarily equate to quality accomplishments, and most of his accomplishments are historical creations that modern Republicans thrust upon him as they create a modern icon of what a good Republican should be. Today there is more myth than reality surrounding Reagan, but he remains a powerful symbol for modern Republicans to express their ideology.

Sunday, October 16, 2011

September Memories Continued

Recently someone made a comment on our blog asking where the family pictures went! Sorry! Time has been flying by and I am just behind. I will try to remedy that these next few days and get caught up. I have so many great pictures, so I better get them posted!
Let's begin with a visit from our friends Carly, Paul and Adelaide! They came to visit on September 16-17. We met them in Tempe and they moved away before we did. We love them so much and were so happy to have them visit. Come back soon!
I couldn't resist taking a picture of my girls in the car on the way to Stake Conference. Lily smiles all of the time, but usually right after I take the picture! Aren't they adorable?!
I had the pleasure of directing a Stake Choir on October 18th. About 60 people came and sang and it was such a wonderful experience. I wish I could show you pictures, but I always feel strange taking pictures in the chapel. So you will just have to take my word for it that the choir sounded amazing, the Spirit was really strong, and I can't wait to do it again! When I sat down after a beautiful rendition of "My Shepherd Will Supply My Need" I looked over at Matt and he was a little teary-eyed. Trust me, that does not happen often--maybe ever. And he said, "That was amazing." No compliment could be better than coming from him because he is my most honest critic. Love you Mattie!
September 20th dance day pics--some of Abby's funny faces:
September 22:
I've been looking for ways to reinforce the positive things that Abby does and so we've been doing sticker charts. With her first sticker chart she earned a Toy Story tent and she was so excited.
I was really proud of her.
Saturday September 24th our friend Michelle came to visit us. We went to a Children's Museum and we all had a great time. Abby tried everything and constantly called each of us over to try whatever she wanted to do. She has the best imagination.
Abby's preschool had their first field trip and it was to the Kern County Fair. Parents were supposed to go, so I went and took lots of pictures. It was a pretty good fair and the kids were so cute. My favorite part was watching them get pulled in the little train. As they saw various animals they put a sticker on a chart their teacher made. Abby still has her chart.
What a fun day!
Matt and I both work with the youth at Church and I had the opportunity to work with the kids for this year's Standards Night. We did a program called, "We Believe" and the youth did the whole program--narration and songs. I love working with the youth and the program turned out really well. We not only did the program for a Sunday evening, they also did it for the entire ward for a Sacrament meeting. One of the young men came up after we did Standards Night and said, "Sister Garrett, I felt the Spirit." That alone made it all worth the time and energy it took to put it together. I hope I have other opportunities to work with the youth in regards to music. What better way to help them feel the Spirit and encourage them to develop testimonies of their own. Here are some of the youth one night as we practiced some of the music.
We have such fun and creative youth.

Saturday, October 15, 2011

September Memories

So September seems to have gone by without a blog post! Terrible! I've been working on a lot of projects--one being our Youth Standards Night. Last Sunday they performed in front of parents and leaders and today they presented the program in Sacrament meeting. They did an amazing job and I knew it was worth it when one of the young men came up and said, "Sister Garrett, I really felt the spirit today." That makes it worth every bit of energy!
So now I need to catch up on a few things--beginning with our September memories.
On September 1st we began at Abby's dance class and as you can see, she is learning tap (and ballet). I love watching her dance.
Later that night we had a fun party for some wonderful friends that moved to Florida, the Cola Family. We will miss them so much. Here are a bunch of girlfriends!
Amber Cola and Jen. Love you Amber!
Abby has a friend named Levi whom she loves to play with. Here they are at the Cola's party.
Everyone loves to hold Lily and Stephanie Randall and Jane Delgado are perfect examples.
Here is a cute picture of Abby and Lily sporting their "Big Sister" and "Little Sister" shirts.
Abby loves to go in her blow up pool and so on September 2nd I joined her for a splashing good time. We jumped in the pool I don't know how many times and one time I found myself sliding right onto my rear end. Abby enjoyed that very much. Then Lily even took her first swim in a little blow up pool.
Saturday September 3rd was a college football game day--I say "day" because we have 3 teams to cheer for. Here we are sporting our Nebraska attire. Later the girls both fell asleep on me. I'm so lucky!
After Church on Sunday, Abby fell asleep while eating her cheese roll at the table. She doesn't sleep much or often, but when she does it's pretty darn cute.
September 7th, Wednesday, was a pretty momentous day. Abby's first day of preschool! Can you believe it? I took this before we left. She was so excited about her new lunch box.
After preschool I took Lily and Abby to the movie Cars 2. It was Lily's first movie in the theater! She slept....
Thursday, September 8th was another day of dance and I can't stop taking pictures of
Abby at dance!
The youth in our Ward were in charge of a Stake dance and Matt helped them with the set up. The dance went great and I think they might have had the most fun setting up!
Saturday Lily was having a little tummy time and then fell asleep. So cute!
Our Ward had a fun barbecue and the our friends the Henrie's enjoyed holding Lily--everyone does!
On Sunday, the 11th Matt and I had the youth narrators for Standards Night over to practice their part and have Sundaes. Before we began they used our indoor basketball hoop. Abby also found the camera and started taking pictures. This one turned out pretty cute.
Abby loves to help give Lily a bath and fortunately Lily is very patient.
Ok, just another dance picture or two from the 15th!
Lily loves to watch Abby dance!